Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?

This market resolves on the Bank of Russia board meeting in December 2026: whether it announces a key-rate cut of exactly 25 basis points. The market currently prices that outcome at 37.5%, while our model puts it at 45%. The context is the easing cycle the CBR has run since 2025, and the December meeting is traditionally a pivotal one, with an updated macro forecast and a signal for 2027.

The key drivers behind our estimate: annual inflation decelerating toward the 4–5% target range, a firmer ruble, and cooling credit activity. Under those inputs the CBR's base case is a 25 bp step at every other meeting, and December fits that schedule neatly. We also account for the regulator's preference for predictable small steps at year-end rather than a pause or a 50 bp move.

The market likely understates the probability because of recent hawkish commentary and budget-deficit worries. But for the outcome to win, only one thing is needed: the CBR must cut by exactly 25 bp, not 50 bp and not hold. With inflation near 5% and a neutral rate of 7.5–8.5%, room for such a step remains.

The main risks: an inflation pickup from tariff indexation and ruble weakness, and a shift in rhetoric toward a prolonged pause. If the December forecast raises the 2027 rate path, the 25 bp step could be delayed and the idea invalidated.