Will “Dry Spell” by Kacey Musgraves win Song of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?

This market resolves Yes if “Dry Spell” by Kacey Musgraves wins Song of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards. The contract trades at 4 cents while our model puts the probability at 8%, double the market. Musgraves is a proven CMA favourite: she has already won in this category, the song sits inside a strong album cycle, and it is receiving country-radio rotation. Song of the Year is voted by songwriters rather than performers, and Musgraves’ reputation as a writer works in her favour.

The key drivers behind our estimate are a narrow nomination field where solo-written material traditionally outweighs pop crossover, and the CMA’s history of rewarding artists it has already honoured. At 4% the market is effectively pricing a 1-in-25 chance, which is too low for an active past winner with a current release. For the outcome to win, “Dry Spell” must first secure a nomination and then beat likely challengers from mainstream country and breakout newcomers.

Risks: if the song misses the nomination or is displaced by a more commercial hit, the contract goes to zero. A scenario where the academy prefers a fresh face is also plausible. The idea is invalidated by a missing nomination or a weak label campaign during the voting window.