Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

The market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating touches 35% or lower at any point in 2026 on a recognized aggregator (RCP, 538, etc.). It trades at 26% while our estimate is 55% — the market is clearly underpricing the risk. Trump enters 2026 with approval around 40-44%, already close to the threshold, and historically the second year of a presidency almost always brings a drawdown as accumulated fatigue and loss of independent voters set in.

Key drivers: inflation expectations remain elevated, tariff policy pressures consumer prices, and immigration raids plus legal battles around the administration generate a persistent negative backdrop. In his first term Trump fell to 37-38% by mid-2017; polarization is higher now and the economic buffer is weaker. A single prolonged crisis — tariff escalation, a shutdown, or a sharp rise in unemployment — is enough to knock the aggregate down 5-7 points.

Why the market may be wrong: traders extrapolate current stability and underprice tail scenarios. For YES to win, only a single touch of 35% is needed, not a sustained decline. With rating volatility of ±3 points per quarter, the probability of a touch is substantially higher than the implied 26%.

The main risk is sustained economic growth and foreign-policy wins keeping the rating above 38-40% all year. It also matters which aggregator is used: different sources diverge by 1-2 points, which is critical right at the threshold.