Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?

The market resolves Yes if more than 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act. This is the flagship crypto market-structure bill, which advanced through committee in 2025 with bipartisan backing. The 50-vote threshold is a simple majority in the 100-member Senate, not the 60 needed to break a filibuster, so the question concerns the final substantive vote rather than a procedural cloture motion. The current price of 0.075 reflects extremely low expectations, which looks disproportionate to the bill's stage.

Our 0.85 estimate rests on several factors. First, the bill has explicit sponsors from both parties, and the crypto industry is lobbying hard for passage. Second, even under strict party discipline, 51 votes requires only a majority of Republicans plus a handful of Democrats from crypto-friendly states. Historically, similar market-structure bills have drawn 60+ votes when brought to the floor. A threshold of 50 Senators is well below the typical support level for such initiatives.

The market may be underpriced due to thin liquidity and trader caution, with some conflating the 50-vote threshold with the 60-vote filibuster requirement. To win, Senate leadership simply needs to bring the bill to a vote and secure a simple majority — a scenario consistent with current bipartisan dynamics.

Main risks: the bill could stall in procedural votes, lose support through amendments, or be delayed past the session. If the majority leader does not schedule a vote, the market resolves No regardless of actual support. There is also a scenario where some Republicans vote against under pressure from industry groups.