Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026?

The market resolves YES if Hyperliquid's open interest flips above the reference level (a major centralized exchange or benchmark defined in the contract) at any point during 2026. YES trades at 0.03, implying only a 3% chance, which looks too cheap. Hyperliquid has consistently ranked among the top three derivatives venues by OI, and its share of the perpetuals segment has grown at double-digit rates on the back of HIP-3 and broader listings.

The key drivers behind our 25% estimate are Hyperliquid's OI trajectory (repeated all-time highs), declining activity on several CEXs after regulatory tightening, and the general migration of volume to on-chain venues. Even without overtaking the leader, crossing just one benchmark exchange would trigger the outcome, which materially raises the probability. At 0.03 the market appears to price near-zero odds for a scenario that already partially played out in 2025.

For YES to win, Hyperliquid needs a sustained or one-off OI spike above the threshold at any moment in 2026, for example around a major listing, an airdrop, or a volatility surge. Risks: the contract's exact OI methodology may diverge from public aggregators, and competitors could grow OI faster. If the gap has not narrowed by mid-year, the thesis weakens.