Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?

This market resolves on whether any player records a quadra kill in Game 1 of the EMEA Masters Swiss Stage match between Colossal Gaming and Lodis. The No outcome is priced at 50%, implying even odds, even though quadra kills are statistically rare in professional play.

Our model assigns 88% to No. The base rate for quadra kills in high-level competitive matches is around 10-15%, and EMEA Masters is no exception. The Swiss stage typically features more disciplined drafts and cautious teamfights, reducing the chance of one player stringing together four kills. Both teams are at a similar level, which lowers the likelihood of a one-sided snowball.

The market is likely inflated by conflating quadra kills with more frequent triple kills and by overestimating EMEA Masters aggression. For No to win, no player needs to collect four consecutive kills in a single fight or skirmish sequence. That is the standard outcome in the vast majority of professional games.

The main risks are an early 5v5 fight at Dragon or Baron where one carry cleans up, or a dominant snowball by one team. Even in those scenarios, the probability of a quadra stays below 20%, making No an attractive bet with a substantial edge.