Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?

The market resolves on the lowest 2026 elevation of the Great Salt Lake: "Yes" wins if the minimum falls below 4,189.3 ft. That is a historically low threshold — the lake hit roughly 4,188.6 ft in 2022 and recovered to about 4,195 ft in 2023–2024 after two heavy snow winters. The current 26% price implies the market expects that recovery to hold through 2026.

Our estimate rests on several drivers. The lake's watershed remains in a multi-year drought, and agricultural plus municipal diversions keep removing inflows. Even an average snowpack year produces only a temporary rise: summer evaporation from the shallow lake can strip 2–3 ft in a single season. For the 2026 minimum to stay above 4,189.3 ft, the basin likely needs two consecutive well-above-normal winters, a scenario we put near 45%.

The market may be anchored on the recent wet years and availability bias, extrapolating the 2023–2024 rebound. For "Yes" to win, only one dry or even average year with a hot summer is needed. The main risks to the idea are a strong atmospheric-river pattern in winter 2025/26 and 2026/27, or policy changes that sharply cut upstream consumptive use and lift the lake faster than expected.