Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?

This market resolves on the lowest Mississippi River level at Baton Rouge by November 30: a Yes means the gauge never drops below six feet during the season's low point. The contract trades at 0.063, implying roughly a 6% chance. The Baton Rouge stage is critical for navigation and water supply, and the market closely tracks drought forecasts.

Our model puts the outcome at 20%, more than triple the price. Drivers: autumn rainfall across the river basin and upstream release management can keep the level from falling below the threshold, and historical variability in seasonal lows shows that outcomes near the six-foot line occur more often than current pricing suggests. At 6%, the market appears to assume a near-certain drop below six feet.

For the outcome to win, the minimum reading by November 30 must stay at 6.00 feet or above, requiring either sufficient rainfall, managed releases, or both. Risks: a dry autumn, low releases, and a sustained decline driven by a lack of rain in the basin. If precipitation forecasts worsen or hydrological management tightens, the probability of this outcome falls sharply.