Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $2.25T and $2.50T at the end of November 2026?

The market resolves on Meta's market capitalization at the end of November 2026, specifically whether it lands in the $2.25–2.50T band. Yes trades at 11%, implying the market expects either a higher or lower outcome. As of autumn 2025 Meta's cap hovered around $1.5–1.8T, with 2024 peaks above $1.4T. Hitting the target corridor requires roughly 30–50% upside over a year — above average, but not extreme for a mega-cap with strong cash flow.

Our 20% estimate rests on several factors: Meta revenue is growing at double-digit rates, the ad business remains high-margin, and AI infrastructure spending is already baked into forecasts. Buybacks of tens of billions of dollars annually shrink the share count and mechanically support the cap. In a scenario where the S&P 500 rises 10–15% and Meta trades at a premium to the market, the $2.25–2.50T band becomes reachable. The market, by contrast, appears to price either continued range-bound trading or a sharp move above $2.5T.

For Yes to win, steady price appreciation is needed without an ad-market collapse or regulatory action that compresses the multiple. Risks: advertising slowdown from macro weakness, rising AI capex pressuring margins, antitrust suits in the US and EU, and a broad tech risk-off. If the cap exceeds $2.5T or stays below $2.25T, the idea is invalidated.