Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: Tied after 5 innings?

This market settles on the score after the first five innings of Phillies vs. Braves: "Yes" wins if the game is tied at that point. The market prices a tie at just 18.5%, while our model puts it at 45%. The five-inning window is essentially half of the starters' outing, and ties occur far more often there than in a full game, where bullpens and extra innings almost always separate the teams.

The key driver is the structure of the market itself. In MLB, the probability of a tied score after five innings historically sits in the 30-40% range depending on offense and starting pitchers, not 18-19%. Both clubs rank near the top of the league in run production, which raises scoring but also the chance of a mirrored score. Our calculation, based on inning-by-inning run distributions and expected starter quality, returns 45%, meaning the market underprices the tie by roughly half.

For "Yes" to win, the teams simply need to have scored the same number of runs through five innings - 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2 all qualify. That requires no upset and no injury to a star: it is enough for the two starters to perform comparably. At a price of 0.185, even a 35% probability produces positive expected value, and our estimate is higher still.

The main risk is an early blowout: a three-run homer or one bad inning from a starter sharply cuts the chance of a tie, and bullpens barely feature in the first five innings. The model is also sensitive to the confirmed starting pitchers and weather; if Philadelphia's announced starter turns out materially weaker, the estimate should be revised down.