Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?

This market resolves YES if OpenAI releases the next GPT Terra model (version 5.7 or higher) before November 30, 2026. The current YES price is 0.235, implying the market sees only a 24% chance of such a release within roughly two years. The contract targets a flagship model, not incremental updates, which defines the payout condition.

The key driver behind our estimate is OpenAI's historical release cadence. GPT-4 launched in March 2023, GPT-4o in May 2024, and GPT-5 in August 2025. Even accounting for longer cycles between major versions, the interval is 12–18 months, and the deadline is nearly two years away. Over that window OpenAI will almost certainly ship at least one major model that qualifies as 5.7+. Competitive pressure from Google, Anthropic, and Meta further forces faster iteration.

The market likely underprices this because traders extrapolate the recent GPT-5 launch pause beyond 2026. But the contract accepts any 5.7+ version, including interim updates, which sharply raises the odds. A single announcement before end-November 2026 is enough for YES to win.

Main risks: regulatory pressure, safety-related delays, a version-numbering change, or a slip into December 2026. If OpenAI adopts a different naming scheme, resolution could become ambiguous. There is also a scenario where the company prioritizes product features over base models.