Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of November 2026?

The market resolves on OpenAI's valuation at the end of November 2026, specifically whether it lands in the $700–800B band. Yes currently trades at 13.5%, implying traders expect either a print below $700B or well above $800B. Context: in autumn 2025 OpenAI secondary transactions priced it near $500B, and reported rounds and tender offers set the trajectory. At the current pace, doubling the valuation over 12–14 months is a base case for the generative-AI leader.

Key drivers behind our 25% estimate: OpenAI revenue is compounding fast (roughly $13B ARR by end-2025 with plans for $20B+ in 2026), capital commitments from Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia and SoftBank anchor value, and the secondary market already trades shares at a premium. Historical step-ups for late-stage peers like Anthropic and xAI show a $200–300B annual jump is realistic. The $700–800B band sits mid-distribution, while the market pushes mass into the tails.

For Yes to win, a deal or tender must occur by late November 2026 that fixes the valuation precisely in this corridor. That requires revenue growth without a multiple collapse and no regulatory shock. Risks: a mega-round above $800B (e.g., a $900B+ print) or, conversely, a tech-sector correction pushing the valuation below $700B. The choice of valuation source — secondary trade, round, or independent mark — can also produce different numbers.