USD1 depeg by December 31?

The market resolves YES if the USD1 stablecoin (World Liberty Financial's dollar-pegged token) loses its peg before December 31, 2026. YES currently trades near 6%, implying a very low depeg probability. USD1 is a young asset with a multi-billion market cap, backed by Treasury holdings and managed through partners, so the market treats it as safe by analogy with USDC and USDT.

Our 10% estimate rests on several factors. First, history shows that even large stablecoins (USDC in March 2023, UST in 2022) depegged under reserve or banking-partner stress. Second, USD1 has elevated issuer concentration and political entanglement, raising the odds of a regulatory or reputational shock. Third, the base rate of depegs among new stablecoins over a two-year window is materially above 6%.

For YES to win, only one event is needed: a brief deviation from $1 beyond the resolution threshold (typically 1-2%) at any point before the deadline. That could occur during panic, reserve problems, or liquidity crunches. The market underprices this tail risk because it anchors on current stability and a short track record.

The main risk to the idea is that USD1 stays perfectly pegged and any wobbles remain below the resolution threshold. Ambiguity in the rules (which price source and what threshold) could also produce a NO resolution even amid visible stress.