Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

This market resolves Yes if shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal volumes by November 30 — meaning tanker and container flows, insurance premiums and waiting times return close to pre-crisis levels. The current 11% price implies near-certainty of prolonged disruption, which looks overly pessimistic.

Key drivers: the strait remains the artery for roughly 20% of global oil, and even partial de-escalation quickly restores traffic. Historically, after similar Persian Gulf incidents in 2019 and 2021, normalization took 4–8 weeks, not months. Naval convoys, diplomatic talks and commercial pressure from shipowners create strong incentives to resume. Our model gives 40%, based on baseline de-escalation speed and seasonal demand.

Why the market may be mispriced: the 11% price embeds a permanent-conflict scenario but ignores that parties have repeatedly agreed to tactical pauses. For Yes to win, it is enough that insurance premiums fall and major carriers resume voyages by late November. This can happen even without a formal peace deal.

Main risks: a new tanker attack, expansion of the conflict onto land, or formal Iranian restrictions would derail the scenario. If traffic stays below 70% of normal, the bet loses.