Will Belarus win 2026-27 Nations League Group C1?

The market resolves on whether Belarus wins Group C1 of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. This is League C, where the opposition is materially weaker than in Leagues A and B, and the format means six matches with promotion at stake for the group winner. The current 3.6% price looks too low for a side that is usually among the stronger teams in its quartet on ranking and squad quality.

Our estimate rests on several drivers: Belarus retains a core of Russian Premier League players and useful legionnaires, and in League C it regularly collects points against the likes of Luxembourg, Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan. Historically, group favourites in this division win their group roughly 20-25% of the time, which anchors our 20% estimate. The draw and calendar are unknown, but simply being placed in C1 does not make Belarus an underdog.

The market likely underprices this because of broad scepticism toward Belarusian football and thin liquidity in long-dated contracts. For the outcome to win, Belarus must finish first in a four-team group over six matchdays, beating at least two direct rivals. The main risks are an unfavourable draw against a clear favourite, sanctions-related neutral venues, and injuries to key players. A group containing a strong favourite or early dropped points would invalidate the idea.