Brooklyn FC vs. Detroit City FC: Neither team to score first?

This market resolves on the first-team-to-score event in Brooklyn FC vs. Detroit City FC: the "Yes" outcome means neither team scores first, i.e. the match ends 0-0. The market currently prices that at just 7%, implying roughly 1-in-14 odds for a goalless draw. For lower-scoring US soccer sides like these, that is an underpricing: base rates for 0-0 in such leagues typically run 8-12%, and can be higher given specific defensive styles.

The key drivers behind our estimate are scoring statistics. Brooklyn FC and Detroit City FC have recently shown poor finishing, with matches involving them averaging around 2.2-2.4 goals and an elevated share of clean sheets on both sides. Our model, which weights attack and defence strength plus game tempo, puts the probability of a 0-0 at about 20%, more than double the market price.

The market may be biased because the public generally underrates goalless outcomes and overpays for "a goal will be scored." For "Yes" to win, the teams simply need to fail to score in regulation; even one early goal kills the bet. The main risks are an early goal, a penalty, or a red card that changes the game state. If the starting lineups are attacking or one side pushes recklessly, the 20% estimate could prove too high.