Will Liberal–National win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

The market resolves on which party wins the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election. The Liberal–National coalition is the main opposition force in the current parliament and has consistently formed the second-largest bloc. Australia's state-level two-party system makes it almost structurally impossible for neither major force to finish second: even with a severe swing against it, the coalition remains the primary alternative to Labor.

The key driver behind our estimate is the electoral mechanics of Victoria. Labor is very likely to win a majority of seats, meaning second place is contested between the coalition and minor parties or independents. For the coalition to fail to finish second, it would need to lose so many seats that the Greens or independents overtake it, requiring simultaneous collapses across dozens of electorates — an extremely low-probability event. Historically the coalition has always been either first or second.

The 13% price looks depressed, likely due to thin liquidity and misunderstanding of state electoral mechanics. For 'Yes' to win, the coalition merely needs to finish second, which is the baseline scenario in any outcome except a coalition victory. The main risk is the implausible scenario where the coalition falls to third behind Labor and independents, or a leadership split that drives its support below minor-party levels.