Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?

The market resolves on whether XRP reaches $2.60 at any point before December 31, 2026. The contract trades near 17.5 cents, implying a probability just above one in six. XRP already traded near $2.60 in late 2024 after Trump's election and expectations of a friendlier regulatory climate, confirming the level is achievable.

Our model estimates 50% versus the market's 17.5%. The drivers are the resolution of the SEC case against Ripple, the launch of spot XRP ETFs, growth in cross-border payments, and broader crypto cycle dynamics. XRP's historical volatility supports 50-100% annual moves, and $2.60 is only 30-40% above recent highs. In a renewed bull trend, touching that level is a base-case scenario.

The market underprices this because of the recent pullback and altcoin skepticism. Winning requires only a single touch of $2.60, not a sustained hold above it. Given that XRP has already demonstrated such levels, a 17.5% barrier looks unjustifiably low.

Risks include a prolonged bear market, adverse regulatory rulings, weak ETF inflows, or losing payment-market share. If XRP stays below $1.50 through the year and volatility compresses, our estimate would prove too high. A sustained decline with no catalysts would invalidate the idea.