Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 15 Gwei before 2027?

The market predicts whether the average monthly Ethereum gas price will reach 15 Gwei before the end of 2027. Yes currently trades near 14%, while our model estimates the probability at 50%. This is one of the more liquid crypto markets on Polymarket, and its price is heavily influenced by the current gas level, which has been at historically low values in recent months.

The key driver behind our estimate is the cyclicality of Ethereum fees. After the switch to Proof-of-Stake and the introduction of EIP-1559, base fees became more predictable, but historically the monthly average gas has repeatedly exceeded 15 Gwei: during DeFi booms, NFT manias and major airdrops, the metric went above 50-100 Gwei. With more than two years left until 2027, the probability of at least one month of high network activity is well above 14%.

The market may be underpricing this due to recency bias: participants extrapolate current low fees across the entire horizon. However, the growth of L2 solutions reduces load on the main layer, which is a counterargument. For Yes to win, it is enough for the average gas to exceed 15 Gwei in any single month before the end of 2026, which could happen amid a major airdrop, a surge in memecoin trading or an L2 outage.

The main risks are further scaling of rollups, increased Ethereum throughput and a general decline in fees. If L2s continue to absorb activity while the main layer stays cheap, Yes may not materialize. Also note that the market may be correctly pricing a structural shift rather than a temporary anomaly.