Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

The market resolves Yes if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by December 31, 2026. The current price of 2% implies a near-zero probability, while our model puts it at 35%. This is one of the most underpriced contracts in the set.

Key facts: historically, Bitcoin has delivered multiple-fold gains in bull cycles. After the 2024 halving, new coin supply shrank, while institutional inflows through spot ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, and others) created persistent demand. If BTC repeats the 2017 and 2021 cycle dynamics, a move from current levels to $150k within two years is a realistic scenario. At a price near $60–70k, the $150k threshold implies a 2–2.5x gain, which is not extraordinary for Bitcoin in a bull phase.

For the outcome to win, a sustained bull trend is needed: Fed rate cuts, continued ETF inflows, a weaker dollar, and returning retail interest. The market prices only 2%, reflecting either extreme pessimism or thin liquidity in a long-dated contract. At a fair value of 30–35%, this is a clear anomaly.

Main risks: a prolonged recession, tighter regulation, large sell-offs by governments or Mt. Gox creditors, and a structural bear market in which BTC never reclaims its all-time high. If the price stays below $100k through late 2025, the odds collapse.