Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

This market resolves YES if Arthur Hayes appears as a guest on the UpOnly podcast before December 31, 2026. The current price is 0.126 (13%), while our model estimates 0.250 (25%), an edge of 12.4 percentage points. UpOnly, hosted by Cobie and Ledger, is one of the leading crypto podcasts, and its guest list typically features major traders, fund founders and outspoken market critics. Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a prolific macro and crypto commentator, fits that profile precisely, and his media activity through 2025–2026 remains high.

The key drivers behind our estimate: Hayes appears frequently on podcasts and at conferences, maintains personal ties with Cobie and market participants, and actively promotes his investment theses through public appearances. Over a horizon stretching to the end of 2026, the probability of at least one appearance is materially higher than the current price implies. Historically UpOnly has hosted guests with a similar profile, and Hayes's absence from the show looks more like an anomaly than a stable rule.

The market may be underpriced because of thin liquidity and trader caution: the event depends on private arrangements rather than a public schedule. For YES to win, only one episode featuring Hayes is needed within almost two years. Risks: Hayes may deliberately avoid this podcast, may have conflicts or exclusive deals with other media, and UpOnly itself may cut back on episodes. If no announcements appear by mid-2026, the estimate would need to be revised downward.