Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves Yes if Iran strikes Saudi territory — military sites, oil infrastructure, or via proxies operating from Iranian soil — before September 30, 2026. The current price is 1%, while our model puts the probability at 4%. Context: after the 2019 Aramco attacks and the 2024 exchange of strikes, the Middle East remains fragile, yet Riyadh and Tehran maintain a fragile détente brokered by China in 2023.

Key drivers behind our estimate: continued activity of Iranian proxies in Yemen and Iraq, recurring disruptions in Strait of Hormuz shipping, and the historically elevated base rate of such incidents. Even if a direct strike is unlikely in any given month, the roughly 20-month horizon accumulates risk. We assign about 4%, reflecting escalation seasonality and the market's tendency to underprice tail scenarios.

Why the price may be mispriced: prediction markets systematically underprice rare geopolitical events with long horizons, especially when there is no fresh news. For the outcome to win, a confirmed Iranian attack on Saudi territory must occur before end-September 2026.

Main risks: normalization between Riyadh and Tehran, US and Chinese deterrence, and the fact that most incidents are Houthi attacks not directly attributed to Iran. Any of these could invalidate the idea.